派系.

Deep time · observed from the 1950s

Mobile foragers of the Kalahari

The inward threat, solved

A hunter brings in a large animal and is met not with praise but with organised mockery: the meat is thin, the shot was lucky, the man is a fool. The insult is a mechanism: it stops a good hunter converting food into standing, and standing into power over the band. What looks like rudeness is a society that has identified its own failure mode and built a cultural immune system against it.

Deep time · 1985 – present

Theorists of cultural group selection

Practices are selected by their consequences

Robert Boyd and Peter Richerson supplied the formal models; Joseph Henrich supplied the ethnographic and experimental case that they describe something real. Their claim is deliberately narrow, because the wide version of it was nineteenth-century race science: not that surviving cultures are superior, and not that their carriers differ biologically, but that norms spread and die by what they do to the groups carrying them, within centuries, by imitation and conquest, not by genes.

c. 1200 BCE – 451 CE · c. 509 BCE – 476 CE in the west

The extraction machine

The centre that consumes what it captures

Conquest pays for itself only during conquest. When the frontier stopped moving under Augustus’s successors, the plunder economy had to be replaced by systematic taxation of the already-conquered, a much harder political problem, and one Rome never solved. It called the arrangement pax, and supplied every later European empire with its vocabulary: imperium, colonia, provincia, the client king, the civilising mission.

c. 1200 BCE – 451 CE · c. 911 – 609 BCE

The first of the administrators

Deterrence as a product

Assyria made elite deportation a standing policy and then advertised it. The palace relief carved for Sennacherib at Nineveh shows the siege of Lachish in procedural detail: the ramps, the archers, the columns of deportees walking out. Empires document their own atrocities because the documentation is part of the deterrent: the monument is the tribute list.

c. 1200 BCE – 451 CE · c. 150 BCE – 70 CE

A crowded religious field, not a single orthodoxy

Divided over what collaboration costs

Sadducees drawn from the priestly aristocracy and invested in the existing order; Pharisees, a lay movement with an oral tradition alongside the written law; Essenes withdrawn from a Temple they considered polluted, probably including the community whose library survived at Qumran; and, by the first century, factions for whom collaboration was itself apostasy. The one description we have is Josephus’s, and he was writing for Romans.

c. 1200 BCE – 451 CE · to 70 CE

Religious centre and organ of the occupation

Order, on Rome’s terms

The Temple was the religious centre of the nation; it was also the treasury, the seat of the collaborating aristocracy, and the largest single economic institution in Judaea. Understand that and the arrest makes sense: at night, in a garden outside the city, because the sources say plainly that they feared the people. That is not how you handle a blasphemer. It is how you handle a man with popular support.

c. 1200 BCE – 451 CE · c. 33 – 70 CE

The original community

Torah, Temple, and the renewal of Israel

Its members had known Jesus personally; some were related to him. It kept the law, attended the Temple, and expected the Messiah to return and restore Israel. It also operated face to face, in one city, and left no archive. When the war of 66–70 took the city, the Temple and the leadership together, it took the whole centre of gravity, and there was no correspondence for anyone to collect.

c. 1200 BCE – 451 CE · second – fourth centuries CE

Jewish Christians after James

The law still binds; Paul is an apostate

They held that Jesus was a man, born normally, chosen at his baptism; that the Torah remained binding; and that Paul had betrayed the movement. We know this almost entirely from the people who were trying to eliminate them, and heresy-hunters were not reliable ethnographers. What is visible in the outline is what was lost: a Christianity that kept the jubilee, debt release, sabbath rest and gleaning rights, a body of law that at least attempted to limit accumulation.

c. 1200 BCE – 451 CE · first century CE

The market Paul was selling into

Attracted, but not converting

Gentiles attached to Jewish congregations across the eastern Mediterranean: attending, contributing, respected, and stopping short of circumcision and the full weight of the law. Paul’s offer was addressed precisely at them. So was its structural appeal to women, for whom a movement with no circumcision requirement had an obvious symmetry. That is a large part of why one side scaled and the other did not.

c. 1200 BCE – 451 CE · c. 311 – seventh century

North African rigorist church

Collaborators forfeit their office

They broke away over a question the persecution had made urgent: can clergy who handed over scripture to the authorities still administer valid sacraments? For a time they were the majority church in North Africa. They were also the test case on which Augustine worked out the argument for coercing believers, and the state duly supplied the force.

c. 1200 BCE – 451 CE · second – fourth centuries

A Christianity of insight

The material world is a botched job

An elaborate cosmology in which this world is the work of a lesser deity and salvation comes through gnosis, insight into one’s own true origin. Until 1945 everything known about them came from the men writing against them. Then farmers digging for fertiliser near Nag Hammadi opened a jar containing thirteen codices, and the losers could be read in their own words for the first time in sixteen centuries.

c. 1200 BCE – 451 CE · from c. 165

Ecstatic prophecy and rigorous discipline

The Spirit still speaks

They held that prophecy had not stopped, practised ecstatic utterance, kept a hard discipline, and — the detail that mattered most to their opponents — had women as prophets and leaders. Calling them a deviation is an anachronism: it presumes the orthodoxy they are supposed to have deviated from, which in the second century did not yet exist as a settled thing.

c. 1200 BCE – 451 CE · 1542 – 1965

The Church’s doctrinal tribunal

The teaching, as it stood

On 20 June 1866, instructing a vicar apostolic dealing with the slave trade in Africa, it held that slavery considered in its essential nature is not at all contrary to the natural and divine law, and that a slave may lawfully be sold, bought, exchanged or given, provided the required conditions are observed. That was issued a year after Appomattox.

c. 1200 BCE – 451 CE · 1688

Four Quakers with a piece of paper

Against the grain of the text

The first known written protest against slavery in the English colonies of North America. It was forwarded up the Quaker hierarchy and quietly shelved. What the abolitionists who followed had to do is the point: they could not cite a prohibition, because there is none, so they argued from general principles against opponents who could quote chapter and verse.

1441 – 1900 · from 1619

Colonial legislature

The planter interest

Race was not inherited from the middle ages; it was drafted, one statute at a time, by men solving practical problems. 1662: children take the mother’s status, so slavery becomes heritable and the rape of enslaved women becomes profitable. 1667: baptism confers no freedom, closing the religious escape hatch. 1691: banishment for whites who marry across the line. 1705: the enslaved are real estate, and killing one during correction is not a felony.

1441 – 1900 · centuries before 1492 – present

The people who met the ships

Neither paradise nor fantasy

Horticulturalists who grew cassava, maize, beans, squash and cotton in raised mounds called conucos, fished with nets and weirs, lived in villages under hereditary caciques, and ran trade routes to the mainland. They fought with neighbours and their society was stratified; they were a society, not a myth. And "the Taíno were exterminated" is itself partly a colonial claim: genetic studies show substantial Indigenous ancestry in the modern Caribbean, and communities assert Taíno descent today.

1441 – 1900 · long before 1620 – present

People of the first light

A calculated alliance

Massasoit’s decision to ally with a weak band of newcomers was not hospitality but statecraft, aimed at the rival Narragansett. Their country was the "howling wilderness" the English described and simultaneously praised for abundance, an abundance produced by controlled burning twice a year, by maize, beans and squash grown together in one mound, and by a seasonal round that took each resource at its peak.

1789 – 1945 · 1792 – 1795

Revolutionary government of France

The nation in arms

By the spring of 1793 France was at war with Austria, Prussia, Britain, Spain, the Dutch Republic and Sardinia; the Vendée was in revolt; Lyon, Marseille and Toulon were in rebellion; and the royal officer corps had largely emigrated. The Convention’s answer converted a crisis of manpower into a claim about who the army was. If sovereignty resides in the nation, defending it is not a service the citizen sells but a duty the nation may command.

1789 – 1945 · 1807 – 1815

Rebuilding a defeated state

Manufacture a nation, or lose again

Their diagnosis of Jena was not tactical. France had a population that considered the state its own: French soldiers could be trusted to forage and skirmish without deserting because they believed they were the nation, and drilled subjects of a monarch could not. So they set out to manufacture one: abolishing serfdom, restricting corporal punishment, opening the officer corps, and rebuilding education. They were building the army and the school in the same room, in the same years, for reasons they connected explicitly.

1789 – 1945 · 1868 – 1912

Japan’s modernising government

A national system in one generation

The Gakusei of 1872 built a national school system from almost nothing in a generation, with the explicit aim of producing citizens for a modern state and army. The Imperial Rescript on Education of 1890 was read aloud in schools before the emperor’s portrait. Japan is the clearest demonstration that the Prussian design was a technology rather than a culture: it could be lifted whole and it worked.

1789 – 1945 · the war of 1904–08

Peoples of German South West Africa

The first victims of a German extermination order

Driven into the Omaheke desert with the waterholes held against them, and the survivors put into camps the German administration already called Konzentrationslager. Something on the order of 80 per cent of the Herero and half the Nama population died. The skulls of the dead were shipped to Germany for anthropological measurement. Germany formally recognised these events as genocide in 2021.

1789 – 1945 · 1918 – 1933

The emergency, as property owners saw it

Moscow’s line, to the end

Its vote rose in every election from 1928 to November 1932, reaching 100 seats, and for German industrialists and landowners watching Soviet collectivisation, that, not the Nazis, was the emergency. Its own contribution belongs in the account too: the Comintern’s "social fascism" line held that social democrats were the main enemy and forbade a united front. The two parties together consistently outpolled the NSDAP and never combined.

1945 – present · 1899 – 1970

Guatemala’s largest landowner

The reserve it did not farm

It held vast Guatemalan reserves it did not cultivate, and it had understated their value for tax for years, which is why compensation at its own declared valuation was intolerable. Its law firm supplied the Secretary of State and the Director of Central Intelligence. It is the clearest single illustration of the chapter’s claim: the specific policy that triggered intervention was, again and again, an attempt to control domestic resources.

1945 – present · founded 1845

The largest Protestant body in the United States

Changed, and forgot that it had

In 1971 it passed a resolution calling for legislation permitting abortion in cases including rape, incest, fetal deformity and damage to the mother’s emotional, mental or physical health, and reaffirmed it in 1974 and 1976, after Roe. Its most prominent pastor said publicly after Roe that he had always felt a person did not become an individual until birth. Something changed between 1973 and 1979, and it was not the theology.

1945 – present · the modelling: 1977–1982

Oil major; in-house climate modeller

Knowing, and buying doubt

Its own scientists modelled global warming accurately — not vaguely, accurately. A 2023 reanalysis of the internal graphs found between 63 and 83 per cent of the projections consistent with subsequent observation, averaging about 0.20 °C per decade, as good as or better than the academic and government models of the day. The internal documents also correctly reject the coming-ice-age idea and correctly estimate the carbon budget.

1945 – present · the plan: 1998

Trade association

Manufactured uncertainty

Its 1998 Global Climate Science Communications Plan set out a strategy whose stated measure of victory was that average citizens and the media would come to recognise uncertainties in climate science. Not to believe the science was wrong — to believe it was unsettled. That is a much cheaper objective, and it worked for twenty-five years.

1945 – present · 1909 – present

Oil major

Your commute, not their production

The same company whose refusal to open its books to Iran in 1951 led to the coup of 1953 later gave the world the personal carbon footprint, popularised through a large advertising campaign from 2004 complete with an online calculator. It is a very effective piece of work: it converts a question about production and policy into a question about how you get to work.

1945 – present · from 1947

Neoliberal thought collective

The long campaign, with proceedings

Thirty-nine economists, historians and journalists met at a hotel above Lake Geneva in 1947 to organise the intellectual campaign against the postwar settlement, and did it in the manner of a learned society: a statement of aims, conferences, proceedings. It is what actual elite coordination looks like, which is why conspiracy theorists ignore it: public, minuted, tax-deductible, and patient enough to wait thirty years for its moment.

前殖民时期 · c. 17th century – 1961

The royal lineage of the kingdom of Rwanda

The court, and its own chronology

Effective historical depth is best dated from the early seventeenth century; the longer chronology is partly a court reconstruction, stretched backward for legitimacy. What the dynasty actually ran was a centralised monarchy with an army, a tax system, a state religion and a mobile court, and three separate chieftainships in each district, held by different men, so that no one notable held every kind of authority in a place.

前殖民时期 · precolonial – early 20th c.

College of ritual specialists

The code of kingship

They guarded the ubwiru: the secret esoteric code of kingship, an oral, formulaic compendium of the rituals required of each mwami through his reign. It was so highly elaborated that a twentieth-century transcription filled volumes. It is one of the principal reasons precolonial Rwandan history can be reconstructed at all, a state that kept its constitution in trained memory rather than in writing.

前殖民时期 · precolonial – suppressed under colonial rule

A possession cult open to commoners

Across the categories

Imana, the high god who "spent the night in Rwanda", was distant and had no organised cult. Practical religious life ran through the royal ancestors at court and through Ryangombe (a hero-spirit said to have died in the gore of a buffalo on the slopes of Karisimbi), whose initiates crossed Hutu and Tutsi lines. It is one of the most striking unifying features of precolonial religious life, and one of the things Christianisation worked hardest to suppress.

德国殖民时期 · 1900 – present in Rwanda

The Catholic mission

First the poor, then the court

They opened at Save in February 1900 and became the most consequential European institution in the country: numerous, permanent, fluent in Kinyarwanda, and running the schools. Their strategy has a documented arc. Early converts came from the marginal, because the court was hostile. From the 1920s the mission turned to the court and the chiefly class, baptism became a career requirement, and their ethnography wrote the Hamitic theory into the country’s classrooms.

第一共和国 · 1959 – 1973

The party of the revolution

Emancipation, in a racial frame

It swept communal elections held under a Hutu administration installed by a Belgian colonel, with Tutsi leaders in exile, in flight or boycotting; it abolished the monarchy at Gitarama; and it governed as an effective single-party state until 1973. Its grievances were real and a colonial administration had spent thirty years deepening them. Its framework was the colonial one, which is why its victory required not the abolition of the card but the expulsion of a people.

第二共和国 · c. 1980 – 1994

The circle around the president’s family

Against Arusha, at any cost

The hard core of the regime (family, northwestern clients, army officers, businessmen), for whom the Arusha Accords of August 1993, with their power-sharing and army integration, were an existential threat. The genocide was, among everything else it was, the answer to a negotiated settlement that would have ended their monopoly.

种族灭绝 · 1992 – 1994, and after

Youth militia of the ruling party

Hutu Power

Trained from 1992 by the army, and the primary non-state force in the killing. In January 1994 a senior trainer told the UN force that Tutsi had been registered in Kigali for extermination and that a rate of a thousand killings in twenty minutes was claimed. The commander proposed to seize the arms caches and was ordered instead to inform the president: that is, to tell the government its own plan had been reported.

种族灭绝 · 1993 – 1994

Private radio station

The president’s circle

Music, jokes, phone-ins and incitement, using the word inyenzi — cockroach — that had been in circulation since 1963. Its organisers, and those of the magazine Kangura, were convicted at Arusha in the Media Trial. Two generations of Rwandans had already been taught in mission classrooms that Tutsi were foreign invaders from the north; the radio did not have to introduce the idea.

第二共和国 · 1987 – present

The movement of the exiled generation

A country to go back to

Formed in Ugandan exile by a generation that had been told its non-existence was permanent. Its programme on paper was not ethnic: return of refugees, national unity, an end to the system of ethnic classification. It was nearly destroyed in October 1990, rebuilt itself over a winter above three thousand metres in the Virungas, and took Kigali on 4 July 1994. It stopped the genocide. It has been the dominant political force in the country ever since.

第二共和国 · 1962 – 1994

The national army of the two Republics

The regime, then the camps

It tripled in size in three years under French training and was full of hastily recruited, poorly paid, badly led men. Then the genocide diverted its transport, its command attention and its ammunition into murdering civilians rather than fighting an army, and annihilated the regime’s international standing at the moment it most needed support. The genocide was, among everything else it was, a catastrophic military decision.

重建与卢爱阵执政 · 2000 – present

The successor of the defeated army and militia

The project of 1994, still armed

The remnants of the former army and militia, based in eastern Congo, operating there for three decades and sanctioned by the Security Council. Its existence (a genocidal force encamped on Rwanda’s border, never disarmed by anyone despite repeated requests) is the fact around which the entire subsequent Great Lakes conflict turns, and the argument Rwanda invokes for every intervention it has made in Congo since.

重建与卢爱阵执政 · the withdrawal: late 1994

Humanitarian organisation

The dilemma, faced

Its French section withdrew from the camps in late 1994 on the grounds that it was sustaining an armed force that had just committed genocide; the International Rescue Committee and others followed. Agencies that stayed argued that abandoning several hundred thousand civilians was not a humanitarian option either. Both positions were serious, and the episode produced the "do no harm" literature that the field still teaches.

重建与卢爱阵执政 · 1994 – 2015

The Security Council’s tribunal

International justice, at a distance

It indicted 93 people and convicted 62, and produced real jurisprudence: the first conviction for genocide by an international tribunal, the first recognition of rape as an act of genocide, and the conviction of the men who ran the radio. It also cost around two billion dollars, sat outside Rwanda, could not impose a penalty its Rwandan counterparts could, and housed its convicted better than the country where the crimes occurred. Rwandans noticed.

重建与卢爱阵执政 · 2002 – 2012

Community courts

A caseload nobody else could carry

Over a hundred thousand people in detention and a judiciary of which very few members were alive or in the country. The answer was a modified version of a customary dispute process, scaled to hear roughly two million cases before locally elected lay judges. It has been criticised, with justification, for weak due process, coerced testimony and score-settling. It also processed a caseload no conventional court system on earth could have handled, where the crimes happened, in the language the witnesses spoke.

重建与卢爱阵执政 · 1994 – present

The political project, in a new vocabulary

Relitigating 1994

It takes real events (the RPF killings, the Congo campaigns), and inflates them into an equivalence the evidentiary record does not support. The sophisticated part is the vocabulary: it now campaigns on human rights, press freedom and rule of law, in European capitals, through organisations with human-rights names. A denial movement that only denied would be ignored. One that campaigns on genuine grievances while quietly relitigating 1994 gets an audience.

重建与卢爱阵执政 · 2012 – present

Armed group in eastern Congo

Disputed, and documented

Successive reports of the UN Group of Experts (a body mandated by the Security Council) have documented Rwandan support for it, including the presence of Rwandan Defence Force personnel on Congolese territory, command support and materiel. Its capture of Goma in the 2024–25 escalation produced mass displacement and killings. Rwanda denies the characterisation. The suffering is real, and the FDLR’s existence explains the security interest without licensing everything done under it.

重建与卢爱阵执政 · 2004 – present

A Security Council monitoring body

The mandate

It reports annually to the Security Council, and its findings on Rwandan involvement in eastern Congo are the most serious and most current item in the case against Kigali. This chronicle does not get to cite UN findings when they are convenient and dismiss them when they are not, a rule it applies equally to the 2010 Mapping Report and to the Security Council’s own conduct in April 1994.

now · 1945 – present

The body that decides who is protected

Its own permanent members

Its five permanent members are, with one adjustment, the victors of 1945, and they are also, exactly, the five states the Non-Proliferation Treaty recognises as entitled to nuclear weapons. On 21 April 1994 the same body reduced its force in Rwanda from about 2,500 troops to 270, two weeks into a genocide that was being reported daily. Both facts are about the same thing: a legally entrenched division between states whose destruction is unthinkable and everyone else.

now · 1968 – present

The bargain

Enforced downward

A trade with three parts: the non-nuclear states would not acquire weapons, they would get civil nuclear technology, and (Article VI) the nuclear states would negotiate in good faith on disarmament. Fifty-seven years later the arsenals number in the thousands, every recognised holder is running a modernisation programme measured in hundreds of billions, and the treaty banning the weapons outright is boycotted by all of them.